Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Adam Lind

Adam Lind is the only Blue Jay I want on my roster and gets this spot by default. This Blue Jays team could make a run at 110 losses. Between the pitching staff (pitiful) and division (strong), the Blue Jays are poised to be epically bad. Cito Gaston has already announced his retirement at the end of the year. I'd be impressed if he makes it there. Cito will be begging for retirement after a month with this bunch.

The downside: Did I mention this team is going to blow? Jose Bautista is the projected leadoff hitter. Vernon Wells should hit cleanup and Edwin Encarnacion will be batting fifth. After that, the lineup gets ugly. If Lind can get off to a hot start, he won't see another pitch for the rest of the season. I like Lind, but I don't see where the RBI opportunities are going to come from. I like him for 90 RBIs, but that's me being really, really optimistic.

The bottom line: The Bill James system is the most bullish on Lind. They've got him for 31 homers, 90 runs and 113 RBIs. That's about where I have him for homers and runs, but that RBI total is a little ridiculous. CHONE has him for 24 homers, 69 runs and 90 RBIs. The homers and runs seem awfully low for a guy coming off a 35/93 season who didn't really have any SABR red flags. He's being drafted in the around the fourth or fifth round. I'd like to get him in the late fifth or early sixth, but I don't think he'll be on the board any more. If he were on a better team, I think you'd have to consider him in the third, but he's stuck on this amazingly bad Blue Jays team.

Player who will make me fist pump when he gets drafted two rounds too early: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill won fantasy titles for more than a few owners in 2009. He could help lose fantasy leagues in 2010. I don't trust the homers at all. In case you were living in North Korea, Aaron Hill blasted 36 (!) homers last year. Aaron's previous career high was 17. His HR:FB rate was almost double his career rate. Beware guys coming off of career years. I think he's closer to a 17-home run player than a 36-home run player. He's being drafted around the fourth/fifth round this year. I think there's a chance that Jose Lopez could out-produce Aaron Hill in 2010. Jose Lopez is being taken 70 picks after Hill. The Blue Jays are going to be among the worst teams in baseball next year. They don't really have any table setters to bat in front of guys like Hill and Lind. They're thinking about batting Jose Bautista first. Jose Bautista could be the 2010 version of Dewayne Wise. It's worth mentioning that Hill has never been an OBP guy. He's always been around a .320/.330 OBP. He hit 36 homers and only put up a .829 OPS. The Kendry "The Cuban Crusher" Morales only hit 34 and put up a .924 OPS. The difference is Morales is going a few picks after Hill.

The upside: He reads this, declares a vendetta against me and goes out of his way to make me look foolish all year. He ends every post-game inteview by reading a few sentences from this article. It all culminates in November with Aaron winning the MVP award and forcing me to print this out, cut the paper into pieces, mix it in with spaghetti sauce and literally eat my words.

The bottom line: All three available projections for Hill are basically the same. They all like him for 20ish homers, 70 ish runs/RBIs and a .280ish average. This is your fourth round pick? Really? Either get one of the elite second basemen or wait around for the Jose Lopezes and Rickie Weeks of the world.

Player who no one is buying but should: Edwin Encarnacion

What happened to this guy? He had a mini-breakout in 2007. Then had a mediocre 2008. Last year, he got injured and exiled to Canada. I think he has value this year and he's going virtually undrafted. He did undergo wrist surgery in the off-season. I'm going to keep an eye on the situation, but I'm not really worried about it. The guys who struggle after wrist injuries are the guys that rush back. Edwin did a turn on the 60-day DL and then came back last year. He seemed to get stronger as the season wore on. Edwin hit seven homers with a .911 OPS during the final month of the season. He seems to be experiencing some soreness right now. I'd like to see him actually play in a game before I put him on any of my teams. We should find out what's really going on with Edwin next week.

The downside: He winds up opening the season on the DL and struggles to regain his stroke. If he has setbacks, he's an avoid. Third base is really, really shallow this year. If you choose to punt third base and grab Edwin in the end of a draft, be prepared to have a revolving door of waiver-wire zombies at third base all year. Steady Eddie isn't getting any attention. He's so undervalued that he's worth at least an end of the draft flyer.

The bottom line: If he's able to rest the wrist and get it ready for the season, he could be a solid value. The various projections like him around 20 homers and around 60/70 RBIs with a .250ish batting average. I think I like him to be a little better than that. If he gets 500 at bats, he's a lock for 20+ homers and 70+ RBIs with a .260ish average. If I draft Evan Longoria on Sunday and he gets hit by a bus, I'm going to give Encarnacion as look.

Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays

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