Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Derrek Lee

In 2010, first base really isn't that deep. When guys like Billy Butler are being drafted in the top 100, it's a shallow year. I'm using Derrek Lee as my "Mendoza Line" for first base this year. If Derrek is usually the last quality at first base on most draft boards. After Derrek Lee, things can get ugly. Unless, you want names like Loney, LaRoche or Helton on your roster, you have to draft Derrek Lee. Derrek Lee is considered to be boring and safe in fantasy baseball. I'm fine with boring and safe. Boring and safe won't come in last. It probably won't come in first, but it likely won't come in last. If Derrek is off the boards and you have an empty slot at first, it's okay to panic. If your roommate finds you on standing on the kitchen table with your pants on your head in some sort of makeshift turban, he should just say, "Someone took Derrek Lee," and slowly walk out of the room. You panicked and that's okay.

The downside: Derrek turns 35 this year. This isn't 1998. Guys in their mid-30's won't be improving as they reach their twilight years like they did in the late 90's and early zeroes. He'll likely miss some time with some form of nagging injury. He's not in Chipper territory, but he's probably good for at least one turn on the DL or a missed week with some sort of vague hamstring in rib injury. The worst projection on Derrek is from Marcel. Marcel has him for a 23 homer/78 run/81 RBI season. I'll take that in the eighth or ninth round.

The bottom line: As long as Derrek keeps himself on the field, I think he'll crack 30 homers and provide a better average than most of the fourth-seventh round first basemen will. I worry about the team around him and the protection in the lineup, but I'd take my chances on Derrek. He's one of the few Cubs worth owning in 2010. There really isn't much on this roster from a fantasy perspective. Derrek is one of the few Cubs that I actually want on my roster.

Player who will make me fist pump when he goes two rounds too early: Carlos Marmol

Of all the top closer options that are available, Marmol is the only one that I take off my draft list even when he's healthy. I don't even want to risk the autopick sticking me with Marmol. He's simply not an elite closing option and I don't see why he's being drafted as one. He has 23 career saves. Twenty-three. Brian Wilson gets that many by June and he's being picked after Marmol. Marmol's BB/9 was ridiculous last year. 7.94. That's almost a walk per inning. At some point in 2010, Lou Piniella will get fed up with Marmol's act in the ninth inning. I don't think Marmol is going to keep his job for the entire season and I think there are much, much safer options in the 10th or 11th round.

The upside: Marmol harnesses his electric stuff and becomes the next Mariano Rivera. The Bill James projection has Marmol with 34 saves with a 3.41 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. I think his upside is a little higher, but he has to find a way to cut down on the walks. If he can't stop walking batters, he's not going to keep the closer role. One thing in Marmol's favor is that the Cubs don't have any reliable options behind him. There isn't a Ryan Madson or Jon Rauch waiting to take over when Carlos fails. I don't think Piniella is going to trust Samardzija with the job. I guess John Grabow is the next option, but I don't think he's that special. A lack of a solid replacement could keep Marmol in closer's role. I guess that kind of counts as upside. Kind of.

The bottom line: I don't trust Marmol at all and I he won't be on any of my teams. It's really that simple. If I had to pick one guy to lose his job by May, it's probably Carlos Marmol. I realize it's just a projection, but Marcel has Marmol down for only seven saves next year. I think he'll crack double digits, but there are so many better options available when Marmol is getting drafted. I could rattle off a dozen names that I'd rather have than Carlos.

Player who no one is buying but should: Carlos Zambrano

There are two veteran starting pitchers who have almost become fantasy pariahs and I'm not entirely sure why. Two former rotation anchors that have fallen out so far out of favor with fantasy owners that they're worth taking a look at. One is Roy Oswalt and the other is Big Z. I understand that pitching is deep this year and there are a lot of young, sexy arms available, but I don't think those two should be going as late as they are. I actually kind of like both these guys because they've become so undervalued. I understand that Zambrano is an idiot. I get it. I've always thought he was a complete and total tool. He's been a perfect example of the "million dollar arm, ten cent head" pitcher. With his stuff, he should be an elite option nearing the end of his prime. Thanks in part to his antics, he's viewed as a headcase that's past his prime. I understand that he's starting to become brittle. I also understand that he's probably a lock for double digit wins, an ERA under 4.00 and a solid strikeout total. I don't think he's in decline yet. His K numbers are still solid and he's always had high walk #'s. I think he's a value in the 14th or 15th round.

The downside: He's bound to hurt his back taking BP or hurling his glove against the wall or doing something else completely stupid. CHONE has him down for a 10-10 record with a 4.28 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. If his WHIP is that high, I don't think his ERA will only be 4.28. It also seems like he's good to miss at least one start due to suspension. Let's just hope it comes against the Phillies in Citizen's Bank and not the Padres at Petco.

The bottom line: The best projection on Zambozo is the Bill James system. They've got him for 12 wins with a 3.60 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Those numbers are more in line with what I'd expect from Carlos. His K/9 was the highest in 2009 that it's been in three years and his walks were not out of the ordinary for Carlos. The numbers don't seem to have him in decline ... yet.

Previously on In the Draft Room ...

Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays

Arizona Diamondbacks | Atlanta Braves

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