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Player who will make me punch the screen when he goes in front of me: Yunel Escobar
I think Yunel is a great post-hype sleeper. I think he'll deliver double-digit steals and homers with solid average and run production. Is he an elite shortstop? Probably not, but I want him more than Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal and Alexei Ramirez, all of whom are being drafted ahead of Yunel. On average, he's being taken in 13th or 14th round at MDC Yahoo!-style leagues. That's about where I have him. The fear is that some other owner will snag him in the 12th round while I'm busy grabbing Chad Billingsley.
The downside: He seems to have picked up the Chipper Jones Nagging Injury Disease. Seeing as how he plays next to Chipper, it was only natural. He missed games with elbow, hip, ankle and wrist injuries last year. He was only 27! He never did a turn on the DL last year, but look at that list again. It had to impact his production. My worry with Yunel isn't the big injury. The big injury is easy to handle. My concern is the annoying wrist or ankle injury that saps production. There is nothing worse than watching a guy put up 0-for-4 days while playing through an injury and killing your fantasy team. The most bearish projection on Yunel is 11 homers with a .294 average and 71/63 run production from CHONE.
The bottom line: Yunel is coming off a solid season. His homers have gone from five to 10 to 14 in the past three years. Could he crack 20? It's possible. I'd like to see a little more speed, but I like the rest of the numbers from the shortstop position. Bill James, surprise, surprise, is the most bullish on Escobar. That system has Yunel with a .302 average with 84 runs, 74 RBIs and 12 homers. I'll have to disagree with the power numbers. I don't see why he can't make a run at 20 homers if he can stay healthy. His batted-ball data appears to be trending in the direction of increased power production. He's still a 50% groundball hitter, but he was a 30% flyball hitter for the first time in his career last year. His HR:FB ratio has gone from 7.9% to 9.1% to 10.1% over the previous three seasons. That doesn't mean his ratios will continue to increase, but it's worth mentioning. He could be a breakout cantidate. If I can get him in the 12th or 13th round, I'm fine with having him on my roster for 2010.
Player who will make me fist pump when someone drafts him two rounds too early: Jason Heyward
Actually, I won't fist pump when I see Heyward get drafted. I'll just shake my head and know that there is one less team in the league for me to worry about. I don't care where he gets taken, he's not even guaranteed a roster spot. I get it. He's the new it prospect. Who was the last IT prospect? Matt Weiters. How did that turn out last year? Okay, comparing him to a catcher isn't fair. Who was the last IT outfielder? Chris Young? Justin Upton? Jay Bruce? Tell me how they did in their rookie year, and I think you'll have an idea of what I'm expecting from Jason Heyward. Heyward has flown off draft boards as high as the 13th round. Congrats, your outfield is probably going to disappoint. He's being taken ahead of hurler faves like Nolan Reimold, Franklin Gutierrez, Nick Swisher, Dexter Fowler and, my personal favorite, Milton Bradley. I'd take any of those guys ahead of the Jay Hey Kid. Beware the uber-hyped prospects. They will only break your heart. Please let "The Jay Hey Kid" be his nickname.
The upside: Heyward becomes the baseball equivalent of Bill Brasky. He kills men with his line drives. He consumes opposing pitchers with fireballs from his eyes and bolts of lightning from his arse. Bill James is the only projection system that offers a guess on Heyward and its ridiculous. 17 homers, 86 runs, 78 RBIs and a .300 average. Come on. That's a better rookie year than Ken Griffey Jr. and he was practically the natural. I get that Bill James seems to be more bullish than most, but that is an absurd prediction for a guy with 13 plate appearances at AAA.
The bottom line: I don't think he breaks camp with the big club and if he does, I think he's going to struggle. He's the over-hyped prospect for 2010. He's a sexy name, and he's guaranteed to be drafted way too high. Pop quiz: Heyward or Vlad Guerrero? If you answered Heyward, I want you as an owner in one of my leagues. Here's the final word on hype. Learn it if you want to win a league.
Player who no one is buying but should: Troy Glaus
I really, really wanted to use this spot for Kris Medlen, but I talked myself out of it. I think he can be had on the waiver wire. If Jair Jurrjens is going to miss time this year, I want to grab Medlen. He's one of maybe two or three rookie starters that I'm willing to trust this year. The guy on the Braves that I think has value is Troy Glaus. According to MDC, he's only being drafted by about 11% of teams in the Yahoo! draft format. Isn't he at least worth an end of the draft flyer? He could provide 20+ homer pop with solid run production. His average will be ugly, but if your team is short on pop, why not take a chance at the end of the draft with Glaus? His most recent injury was to his shoulder. He'll be used exclusively at first base with Braves, so the chances of tweaking his shoulder on a throw are greatly reduced. He should be hitting in a run producing spot in a solid lineup. He'll be better than most of the zombies that inhabit the fantasy wasteland that is the waiver wire.
The downside: He's Troy Glaus. He was brittle seven years ago. Do you think he and Chipper compare battle scars in the clubhouse? The bad news is, he'll probably miss time with some sort of muscle or tendon injury. The good news is that he's being drafted so late that it doesn't really matter. What risk is there with snagging Troy at the end of the draft?
The bottom line: He's going to see at-bats and he doesn't have much competition at first base. The Bill James projection is by far the most optimistic on Glaus. That particular system has Troy blasting 28 homers with 91 RBIs and 79 runs with a .248 average. If I'm in an OPS league (and I am), I'm probably going to end up with Troy on my roster. I'm not sure he'll get to 28, but I think 20+ homers with 75/75 in run production isn't out of the question. That's at least worth a bench spot. The best-case scenario is that he gets off to a hot start and then you package him for someone, erm, more reliable.
Previously on In the Draft Room ...
Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
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