Which of these numbers is not like the other: 8.7, 10.8, 7.2, 6.5, and 20.4? Those are the HR/FB rates for Joe Mauer over the last five seasons. When looking at stats from the previous year, batted ball data can be extremely helpful. In terms of fantasy value, I tend to look for outliers that will regress to the mean both positively and negatively.

One of the places that I can find useful data is in the HR/FB (homeruns/fly ball) category. In 2008, Joe hit 9 HRs and his HR/FB rate was a pedestrian 6.5%. This rate put him near the likes of Randy Winn, Conor Jackson, and Brian Giles. Last year, something happened and he slugged 28 HRs laregely due to a 20.4% HR/FB rate. This put him in the Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder territory that screams "Wha happened?" to most people who aren't fans of the Twins. All of this data is screaming at me to tell you to let someone else pay the very steep price for Joe Mauer this year.

Is he the best catcher in the game? Without a doubt. Is he going to hit 28 HRs again in that shiny new outdoor ballpark filled with Minnesotans? Debatable. I say no way. Feel free to make your case in the comments. Is the cost of a first-round pick worth paying for last year's numbers? Not if you ask me. C'mon, people, you've been down this road before. Let the guy before you in your draft be the Jim Hendry of your league and pay steeply for Mauer while you take Ryan Howard or Evan Longoria or Prince Fielder ...

BABIP (batting average for balls in play) is also a number that can give you some clues into bounceback candidates for batting average. Some guys at the bottom of the list in last year's category are Grady Sizemore (who was ridiculously banged up last year and appears healthy this year), Ian Kinsler, Curtis Granderson, Adrian Gonzalez, and Justin Morneau. I would expect all of their averages to improve at least slightly, perhaps in some cases drastically.

Finally, a look at the leaders in LD% (line drive percentage) will tell you who is hitting the ball solidly, as line drives have a greater chance of becoming hits than do ground balls and fly balls. Looking at this list, very few of these players had BABIP below.310. Some interesting names that stick out in the list of the top 30 in MLB are David Wright, Ryan Howard, Joe Mauer, Michael Young, Joey Votto, Elvis Andrus, Matt Kemp, and Curtis Granderson. What makes Grandy so very interesting is not only his 21.2 LD%, but also his .275 BABIP. With Jeter, ARod, and Tex hitting behind him instead of Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, and Magglio Ordonez, he stands have more of those liners falling in for hits and scoring a ton of runs this year. Kudos to the Yankees front office if any sabermetric analysis went into the trade to get him in pinstripes. His ADP in CBS leagues is about 41, putting him in the middle of the third round in a twelve team league. He may not last that long if any Yankee fans are in your league.

While I spent the better part of that first paragraph stomping on Joe Mauer's 2009 MVP campaign, I also don't want to ignore the misery Twinkies fans will endure if Joe Nathan's surgically-repaired elbow is indeed injured. I know many drafts are approaching, so keep an eye on those reports coming out of the Twins camp. Even if he comes out of this unscathed, keep it in the back of your mind for the rest of the season. Teams rarely tell the truth when players of significance are injured. Saves emerge throughout the course of a season for all sorts of reasons, injuries being a major one of them. Nathan is 35, so he's no spring chicken. Also, with HGH testing now in the minor leagues, players tend not to spring back as quickly from injuries as quick as they did in the past. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.....