This will be the last post in this series, as by the time this weekend ends, we'll be at that point where more people have held their fantasy drafts than have not. Response has been positive and some interesting conversations have unfolded in the comments to these posts, so I plan to not only do it again in 2011, but to start earlier so I can work my way into even deeper rounds. Thanks to everyone who read these Draft Breakdown posts, and especially those who commented on them.

WHO TO TARGET:

Jay Bruce practically defines the "post-hype sleeper." Bill James is calling for 38 home runs and 95 RBIs from the guy. Wishful thinking? Maybe. Maybe not. He's going as high as the ninth round in some leagues. That's a little early. I'd say start considering him once you hit double digits. And if he drops to the 13th -- like he is in a lot of Yahoo leagues -- jump on him.

Not sure why Brad Hawpe is falling so far. He's had two solid, nearly statistically equal seasons in a row, and every major predictor is expecting him to basically repeat those numbers a third time. Good source of late-round power/RBI.

Every year I trumpet Alex Rios as being worth owning on your team, and every year he lets me down. I'm not about to stop now, as I figure one of these years he'll fall deep enough in the draft and play sufficiently above expectations to make me look smart. CHONE thinks he could go 18/20 with 80 runs. If he hits those numbers, then he's easily worth a pick here. Be aware that, in some leagues, he's going as high as the 10th.

Miguel Montero and Mike Napoli are both fantastic options as later-round catchers. I'd rather get either of these guys here than be forced to spend more on all of the backstops drafted to this point. (Depending on how crafty your leaguemates are, you might need to jump on Montero in the 11th or 12th.)

I've got a feeling the Green Monster's gonna rejuvenate Adrian Beltre similar to how it did Mike Lowell. Nice late 3B option.

The Braves are saying that if Jason Heyward plays well enough in camp to earn a spot in the starting lineup with the big-league club -- which is exactly what he's been doing -- then that's where he'll be, regardless of service-time implications. I'm not sure I believe them, but I believe in Heyward.

WHO TO AVOID:

You can draft Geovany Soto in the 14th or Mike Napoli one, two, maybe even three rounds later. I believe you all already know where I stand.

Nyjer Morgan sure was fun to watch in Pittsburgh early last season, but I'm not buying him as much more than a one-year wonder. Could be a decent source of late-round steals, but you're going to feel the sting of starting an outfielder who hits for zero power on a shitty team.

Previous 2010 Draft Breakdowns: Rounds 1-3 | 4-6 | 7-9 | 10-12

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