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It’s mid-July.
Your ratios are toast because you drafted Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jake Peavy and Scott Baker. You have one option left when it comes to pitching. Forget about WHIP and ERA and try to come in first in Ks and WHIP. You have to start streaming. I've been forced to stream in one of my leagues, and I've developed a few helpful rules and tips to aid you in your search for the perfect streamer. My name is Matt. I'm with FH and I am here to help.
1. Avoid rookie pitchers. I can’t stress this enough. I want no part of the warm bodies the Pirates and Royals will be calling up to make his major league debut in August. You’ll say, “His minor league numbers were amazing.” I’ll respond, “Yeah, but he was playing in a league that couldn’t afford outfield fences and all of his outfielders were 6’18 and catch balls with their teeth.” If you want to stream, you’re already dealing with guys that are risky. Don’t screw up your WHIP and ERA further while not getting wins and Ks because a rookie starter only stuck around for two innings. Veterans are boring and predictable. I'd rather take a typical Dave Bush start against Pittsburgh than take a risk on some guy who had spent four months making guys look foolish in Toledo.
2. Start just about anyone against Cleveland, Oakland or Houston. I'm also interested in Baltimore, Seattle and San Francisco. I’d include Pittsburgh, but I think Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen will have a big second half. Also, Bob hooks an electric shock collar to everyone he hires. It goes off whenever something negative is written about the Pirates. These offenses are awful and I won’t be afraid to stream against them. I can only imagine what these teams are going to look like in August and September. Freddy Garcia vs. Cleveland? Thank you. Randy Wolf vs. Houston? Yes, please. Scott Feldman vs. Oakland? I’ll take seconds. Watch out for the Cubs in the second half. If they deal Derrek Lee or some of their big bats, they could join the list of really crappy offenses quickly.
3. Look small picture, not big. I only use the last four to six weeks of stats when streaming. The small sample size tells me what a guy has done recently. There’s a reason I started Vicente Padilla against the Cubs last week, and it’s not because of his sparkling personality. He’s been throwing the ball really well for the past six weeks and the Cubs are looking awful. He matched my first three rules and I got eight innings of very few base runners along with the W. I don't care what guys did in April and May. June and July? That interests me. I want to know what guys have done for me recently. I want to know who has the hot hand right NOW. Throw out the first few months of data when evaluating starters. Actually, I'd be interested in a guy that had an especially bad first half and has strung together a few solid starts. Gavin Floyd, anyone?
4. Did I remember to say avoid rookies at all cost? I was serious.
5. Use a few of the advanced metrics in your evaluation. K/BB, FB:GB, and HR:FB will help you here. I want to minimize the risk of a mediocre starter. These three stats help me do that. Few things can ruin a start faster than walks and homers. I want guys that aren’t doing either very much. K/BB doesn’t tell me how many walks a guy will give up, but it can tell me what kind of stuff he has. For a streamer, anything over two is gravy. Anything under 1.8 is a stay away. Preferably, I want guys who can keep the ball on the ground, but in some parks, it doesn’t matter. There’s a reason the Padres staff has been so awesome. Balls that would be homers in some parks, are long outs in theirs. If I’m thinking about starting a guy playing on the road against, say, the D-Backs, I want a ground ball pitcher. If I’m starting a guy against the Twins or A's, I don’t care as much.
Alright, now it's time for names. I'm going to throw out a few names a stream candidates: Aaron Cook (don't the Rockies always put up big numbers in the second half?), Randy Wells, Randy Wolf, Vin Mazzaro (be very careful about match ups here), Vicente Padilla (I think he's mixed league ownable right now) and Wade Davis are some of the guys I'd take a look at as stream candidates.
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