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Written by Erich Smith
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Monday, 15 February 2010 12:57 |
Pitchers and catchers will be grabbing flights to Arizona and Florida shortly, and the rest of their teams won’t be far behind. So you’ll need to be ready to start deciphering news from non-news within a few days. For the most part, the "scoops" that come in will be cliché tidbits like “Such-and-such added 25 pounds of muscle” and “Blankey McBlankerson switched up his pitching motion.” These things will have little to no value for us, and putting too much stock in any of them will just throw you off course. But there’s bound to be some worthwhile info coming out of these areas that will help us for the fantasy season.
What you need to be concerned with is guys winning actual playing time. A lot of guys earn invites to big league camp, but not many are actually competing for playing time with their club. It’s a chance for the major league managers to get a look at them and for the kids to learn a few things about what it means to be in The Show. Keep in mind that we’re talking about prospects here, because the guys who have been there and done it before and are now labeled quad-A types are rarely the breakout stars we’re looking to dig up dirt on. For every Carlos Pena or Nelson Cruz, there have been 10 Josh Phelpses and Shelley Duncans. In most cases, we want to focus on the young and talented, who simply need a big league job to put them on the fantasy map. And we need them playing in the MLB because, well, I don’t know of any leagues that give you points for bench warming or AAA performances.
Here are the things to hone in on while prepping for your 2010 drafts ...
Rotation spots: It’s important to know if there’s even an opening to fill for most SP prospects. In most cases, teams will wait until an injury or the prospect is so good the team’s hand is forced. For instance, the talented twosome in Tampa: Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. They are being drafted as though they have a shot at breaking camp with the Rays, but I can't really see this happening with the Rays rotation relatively set heading into spring training. Shields, Garza and Price are locks, and Niemann and Sonnanstine aren’t very far behind that. It’s possible that they bring them along for the ride as swing types, but unless a guy is starring every fifth day it will tough for you to get good value out of him.
There are, however, quite a few teams who will need to find a starter or two while basking in the sun in Arizona and Florida. The notable teams that fall into this category (and the equally notable prospects who can fill the voids): Houston (Bud Norris); San Diego (Mat Latos); San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner); Texas (Neftali Feliz); Washington (Stephen Strasburg); Baltimore (Brian Matusz & Chris Tillman); Los Angeles (Scott Elbert); St. Louis (Mitchell Boggs); and Arizona (Billy Buckner). Keep in mind that none of these guys will be guaranteed anything, despite how thin their team’s rotation may be. But the next big arm to jump on the scene could very well be listed in this paragraph, and for that it’s worth keeping tabs on what they’ll be up to before April rolls around.
Guys taking over position spots: There are a couple of guys who have had jobs already turned over to them before spring training even starts. Either their club thinks they’re ready or wasn’t able to get a fill-in via free agency at the price they liked. Since these guys will have to do more to lose their job than to win it, it’s a better use of your time to focus on them than the young upstarts who will have to really impress to get a major league job.
Michael Brantley (Cleveland), Scott Sizemore & Austin Jackson (Detroit), Alcides Escobar (Milwaukee), and David Freese (St. Louis) are a few prospects that will get an opportunity to exhaust their rookie eligibility this season. Other guys with a better-than-average shot to do the same: Brett Wallace (Toronto), Jason Heyward (Atlanta), Lou Marson (Cleveland), and Chris Carter (Oakland). The situations in front of the second group of guys are a little murkier, but there is at least some hope that they could start the year in the majors. If not, almost all will get at least a cup of coffee at some point in 2010. It's also important to remember that the tippy-top prospects also have the super-two rule working against them these days, as teams stand to save lots of money down the road by waiting to advance to the big stage the guys they know will eventually be lineup fixtures.
Injuries and setbacks are something else that's inevitable during training. You'll need to know who the undervalued and versatile are to be ready to step up as well. But without knowing when and where these occur, even teams might not know what the plan is when a guy goes down. To ignore this is foolish, however, as you will need to adjust your draft strategies to account for missed time by bumping guys up and down your cheat sheets.
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