Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Billy Butler

Billy enjoyed a mini-breakout last year and is on my fantasy radar for 2010. He thumped 21 homers while driving in 93 runs and hitting .301 with an .853 OPS. He was a solid late round value that can no longer be had in the late rounds. I’ve seen him off most draft boards in the seventh and eighth rounds in “expert drafts.” I realize first base isn’t nearly as deep as it was last year, but isn’t that insanely early for a player that could have a hard time reaching his 2009 numbers? I’d love to have Butler as a utility spot guy, and it'll pain me a bit to see another manager jump on him early. But I don’t think I want him as a starter. Once regular people start drafting, I'm hoping we’ll see him slide to the 12th round or a little later. I’ve seen him get drafted ahead of Carlos Pena. That seems a little silly to me.

The downside: He’s on the Royals who boast a starting outfield of Podsednik, Ankiel and DeJesus. They have Alex Gordon and random Hispanic infielder #1 and #2 with Butler in the infield. This team is going to struggle to score runs, and Billy is the only bat that I’m even slightly interested in. Alex Gordon and Jose Guillen are the only guys protecting him in the lineup. If he has a hot April, he might not see another pitch until September call-ups. I think his slash line will be respectable, but I think his run production and power numbers could take a hit.

The bottom line: All three prediction programs have him hitting 17 homers. Seventeen homers in the eighth round? Really? The upside here is that after a mediocre start to the 2009 season, Billy put things together after the All-Star break. He clubbed 13 of his 21 homers in the second half and posted a .925 OPS. He’s a 6’1", 240 lbs. doubles-hitting machine. He could start turning those doubles into homers as he develops. I think he might’ve figured a few things out and he could be on his way to becoming an elite guy. I would punch my screen if he went off the board in the eighth round, but I’d do a small victory dance if he fell to the 11th or 12th.

Player who will make me fist pump because he’ll go two rounds earlier than he should: Joakim Soria

Joakim is one of the sexier names out there for closers. He has a bad-ass nickname and people are already selling t-shirts. That alone should inflate his value. I’m suggesting that you pass on The Mexicutioner. Damn, that is a really cool nickname, though. If I were a closer, my nickname would be “The Dewoskorcist.” Yes, I have put way too much thought into this.

The upside: He reverts to 2008 form, mexicutes the American League and racks up 40+ saves with a sick ERA/WHIP while helping the Royals not lose 100 games.

The bottom line: When choosing closers, you don’t want to be sexy. Was Heath Bell sexy? No. Was Ryan Franklin even attractive? Not even close. Sexy guys get drafted too high. When I’m looking for saves, I want the ugliest mugs in the league. Ugly mugs are usually available late. This year, there are going to be names like Dotel, Qualls and Gonzalez on my roster. In the past, if a closer like Soria fell past the 12th round, normally I’d be tempted to grab him, but I think this Royals roster has a chance to lose 100+ games and could make a run at 120. Their outfield is so bad that it makes their infield look competent. They have only one starting pitcher that’s worth drafting. I don’t think Soria is in for a lot of work or a lot of saves. Bill James likes him for 32 while Marcel thinks he’s only getting 23. I wouldn’t draft a closer in the first 12 rounds unless he was a mortal lock for 40+. Good closers on crappy teams are a stay away.

Player who no one is buying, but should: David DeJesus

I know, I know, I know. Everyone has had DeJesus at one point or another. He’s been passed around waiver wires so often that his nickname should be “The Joint,” but he’s a FanGraphs hero and could be worthy of some attention. I really struggled to find a sleeper on the Royals. I wanted to put Josh Fields in here, but I’ve spent the last few seasons watching a lot of crummy swings from Josh with the White Sox. I couldn’t do it. I’m not putting Scotty Pods or Ankiel as a sleeper. The Royals don’t have any exciting prospects on the pitching staff. They have Aaron Crow, but he has yet to throw an inning of professional baseball. I don’t think he’ll be on your fantasy radar this season. I went with DeJesus because he’s not getting drafted and could provide a little pop, a little speed and an average that won’t kill you.

The downside: DeJesus is consistently mediocre. He’ll hit around .280 with double digit homers and have a chance at double digit steals. He might score 80, but he’ll probably only drive in 60. I really wish the Royals would start playing him at SS. It wouldn’t make any sense defensively, but he’d pick up a ton of value from a fantasy perspective.

The bottom line: He’s worth a look in an AL-only or a deep league. I think there are other options in 10-team or 12-team mixed league. The Royals have a chance to be more terrible than usual this year, and I get the impression that DeJesus will be one of the few consistent options. It sounds like he has a chance to get traded before the deadline. Playing in a real lineup could give him a bump in runs and RBIs. So when the 16th round comes along, breathe deep and take a long look at “The Joint.” If I were to market t-shirts with David’s picture on them and the caption, “The Joint – Passed Around Since 2003,” do you think I’d have to pay royalties?

Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers

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