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*Please note that I am a rabid White Sox fan and make no apologies for overvaluing my own guys. I am a total effing homer when it comes to the Sox/Carlos Quentin.
Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: John Danks
I really can’t wait to have John Danks on my roster again. I had him last year and enjoyed the hell out of him on more than a few of my teams. I'm slightly worried that his Ks were down and his walks were up last year, but he’s still young enough to reverse that trend. I think this is why all the projections have him with an ERA in the high 3s/low 4s with a higher WHIP than last season. Other than that horrific 2007 season, he’s consistently posted double digit wins with a solid ERA and WHIP. He’s not going to strike out a ton of batters, but he should go over 130 Ks. I think he’s a great value past the 12th round and that’s where I have him targeted. I’ve seen him go as late as the 17th round in some mocks.
The downside: He plays for my beloved White Sox. Run support could be an issue this season. I’m not thrilled with the Sox offense. And, again -- walks have gone up and his Ks have gone down. If he were older and had any kind of injury history, these things would worry me.
The bottom line: Honestly, I don’t see why John can’t be an All-Star this season. It sounds like he’s excited about pitching behind Peavy and Buerhle. I get the impression that he wants to prove that he’s on their level. I’ve watched more innings of John Danks than I care to admit. I freely admit that I could be blinded by his potential, but I’m excited to have him on my staff with the upside he seems to have.
Player who will make me fist pump because he’ll go two rounds earlier than he should: Alex Rios
Alex Rios might go on my list of all-time least favorite White Sox players. He signed a massive contract with Toronto after a career year and appeared to play with the interest that I have for writing a fantasy knitting column. That fact that Toronto gave him up for nothing should have made alarm bells ring. The White Sox coaching staff is convinced he’ll improve. I’m not convinced. He’ll go somewhere in the middle rounds. I’ve seen him go as early as the 12th. If he goes that early in any of my leagues I’ll break into a victory dance in my apartment. All the projections have him going for 20+ steals, double digit homers and a .270ish average. $16 million, ladies and gentlemen!
The upside: His BABIP was .277 last year. That’s so low that it’s essentially unsustainable. His career mark is .322. I’d expect it to be revert to those levels. Did he suck last year? Yes. Was he incredibly unlucky? Yes again. Will he improve? Not if he displays the interest level he had last year. He also won’t go from playing out the season to thrust into a pennant race. It was obvious that he was pressing as soon as he landed in Chicago.
The bottom line: It feels gross to have Rios on your roster. His average will be mediocre and there is no guarantee that his power will return. If he presses or quits the way he did last season, the numbers could get ugly. I think he will be capable of 20 or so steals, but there are other less risky options at the 12th round.
Player who no one is buying but should: Andruw Jones
All right, you can stop laughing. I thought about using this for Jake Peavy, but I didn’t think he was a deep enough sleeper. I haven’t seen anyone even think about Andruw since he signed a one-year deal with the Sox in December. Here’s what you need to know about Andruw: he’s got power and he’s going to play in a ballpark that’s very friendly to lefties. I’ve seen him go undrafted in most ... okay, make that all leagues, but I think he’s at least worth a late round flier. Despite an awful batting average (.214) he posted a .782 OPS last season. He’s going to platoon at DH and see ABs in the outfield for the Sox, which should result in 400+ ABs this year. If that happens, he could be a cheap source of power.
The downside: He’s Andruw Jones. He’s had a myriad of injuries over the past few seasons. Combine that with his weight and performance issues and he’s become a fantasy pariah. The downside is that he reverts back to 2008 Andruw, which I can’t imagine anyone holding in any format.
The bottom line: He’ll get at-bats, he’ll play in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and if he doesn’t produce, the White Sox will have no problem cutting him loss. I think he knows that a successful season is his last chance at securing another multi-year deal. I don’t trust him, but he’s worth a look in deep leagues, AL-only leagues and as a waiver-wire replacement. The good thing is, he won’t cost anything to roster. You could snag him in the last round and cut him at the first sign of suckage with few repercussions. If he gets 400 ABs, he’ll knock 25 homers, drive in about 70 RBIs and fail miserably to hit for average. In an OPS league, I’d have no problem with Andruw as a bench/utility guy. I think anyone who can potentially post an .800 OPS is ownable. Andruw should be close to that.
Previously on In the Draft Room ... Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox
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