Player that will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Jay Bruce

Power is at a premium this year, and Jay Bruce is one of the last 30-homer upside guys left on the board around the 10th/11th rounds. Given a choice between a speedster or a thumper, I want the thumper. I think we're in a different fantasy climate in 2010 than we were in 2005 or 2006. Power is a premium again instead of a guarantee. When guys were injecting each other with horse adrenaline, power was a little easier to find in the late rounds and speed was more of a premium. Now that players are laying off the needles, homers aren't as plentiful. Jay Bruce is one of the few guys in his draft tier that has legit power. I've got him in the same draft tier as Denard Span, Julio Borbon (and his massive Julio Borboner), Nyjer Morgan and Michael Bourn. One of these things is not like the other.

The downside: He never realizes his considerable potential. I think last year is his downside. He'll still hit 20+ homers, but he'll fail to drive in 60 and could post a really ugly batting average. Marcel is by far the most bullishon Bruce. Marcel is predicting only a 21 homers and 59 RBIs with a .254 average. Nick Swisher scoffs at that projection and says, "I can do that." So, Bruce's worst case scenario is Nick Swisher's normal season.

The bottom line: Bill James has a ridiculous prediction for Jay Bruce. I have no idea what that system is seeing. Maybe someone forgot to carry a one or carried a one too many times. Thirty-eight homers with 98 RBIs and .274 average, oh, and double-digit stolen bases. I like Jay more because of his draft position and his power than the chances that he becomes a legit fantasy force in 2010. If I can add 30+ homer potential in the middle rounds, I'm going to do it. The concern is that some meathead GM chooses to draft guys like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury in the first two rounds and decides to add a thumper in the eighth or ninth round. There's also a chance for a WTF!? pick with Bruce. I could see an owner taking a ridiculous reach in the sixth or seventh round on Bruce Almighty. I think my eyes would roll out of my head if someone actually did that. His BABIP was down around .221 last year. That's almost 40 points off his career average. I don't think he's going to hit .220 again in 2010.

The Second Annual Hurler Invitational Draft was held this past Sunday, and while I won't bore you with a detailed analysis of all 27 rounds, I can tell you where some players whose values seem to be fluctuating wildly on an almost daily basis were picked. So, in case you were wondering ...

-- Jose Reyes was drafted with the seventh pick of the sixth round (#67 overall). Which is exactly where I predicted he'd go. (Sixth comment down, chief!) A lot of people are now warming up to drafting Reyes because the thyroid deal could turn out to be a non-issue, yet it's driving him down draft boards. I'd remind everyone that the real concerns is still his legs, as the hammy injury has now struck more than once.

-- Ted Lilly was selected with the last pick of the 18th round (#216). Anyone drafting Lilly is doing so just to stash him on their DL once the season begins. But it now looks like the Cubs hurler is healing up quicker than expected and could be starting games by the end of April.

-- Atlanta Braves super-prospect Jason Heyward was taken with the third pick of round 19 (#219). He's absolutely worth a pick there. Ball's in the Braves court now.

-- Dice-K was drafted (by yours truly) with the fourth pick of the 23rd round (#268). I have plans to stash him on the DL, so I hope the Red Sox don't try to do something stupid, like rush him to the mound before he's physically ready.

-- Joe Nathan was taken with the last pick of the 25th round (#300). And why not? Your odds of getting a valuable player that late are thin anyway. Why not swing for the fences and hope Nathan decides he can pitch (and do it well) through the pain?

If you're curious about a player who's not here, check out the results of the entire draft, which Alfonso, one of our regular readers and a member of the league, was kind enough to post online.

Every fantasy analyst or expert's goal should be to provide insight and help to those in need. It can come in many different forms: some strive to open minds to our game's unexplored territories, others want to supply managers with information in order assist their team-building efforts. While there are many that are very good in either regard, often those with the loudest voice can be the most distracting and least helpful, and should be avoided.

I'm speaking specifically of the big three providers: Yahoo!, CBS and ESPN. I can't find market share numbers, but I'd wager a guess that at least 70% of all leagues are confined to these three platforms. All three employ year-round "experts" providing you with easy to find content when you log in to your league, and all three also employ some of the worst "experts" this side of Fox News. I don't want to call anyone out or name names, so rather than tell you who to avoid, I'll tell you who in my experience is most worthy of your time should you decide to click on those little links on your league pages during the season. (With the hope that by process of elimination, you'll also know who sucks and I won't get banned from playing at these places).

In my opinion, the goal is not to be "right" the most, but rather to show your work. Look, I also hated that phrase in high school. But anyone can tell you that the undrafted guy with 12 homers in 100 at-bats is worth looking at. What we want/need to know is whether or not he can sustain those numbers, if they're fluky, or if we should have seen this coming for miles. With that said, here are three guys -- one from each of the three mega-providers -- that do these things better and more consistently than any of their colleagues. Of course you'll still likely find more of what you're looking for here at the Hurler and similar sites, but if you must:

Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Derrek Lee

In 2010, first base really isn't that deep. When guys like Billy Butler are being drafted in the top 100, it's a shallow year. I'm using Derrek Lee as my "Mendoza Line" for first base this year. If Derrek is usually the last quality at first base on most draft boards. After Derrek Lee, things can get ugly. Unless, you want names like Loney, LaRoche or Helton on your roster, you have to draft Derrek Lee. Derrek Lee is considered to be boring and safe in fantasy baseball. I'm fine with boring and safe. Boring and safe won't come in last. It probably won't come in first, but it likely won't come in last. If Derrek is off the boards and you have an empty slot at first, it's okay to panic. If your roommate finds you on standing on the kitchen table with your pants on your head in some sort of makeshift turban, he should just say, "Someone took Derrek Lee," and slowly walk out of the room. You panicked and that's okay.

The downside: Derrek turns 35 this year. This isn't 1998. Guys in their mid-30's won't be improving as they reach their twilight years like they did in the late 90's and early zeroes. He'll likely miss some time with some form of nagging injury. He's not in Chipper territory, but he's probably good for at least one turn on the DL or a missed week with some sort of vague hamstring in rib injury. The worst projection on Derrek is from Marcel. Marcel has him for a 23 homer/78 run/81 RBI season. I'll take that in the eighth or ninth round.

The bottom line: As long as Derrek keeps himself on the field, I think he'll crack 30 homers and provide a better average than most of the fourth-seventh round first basemen will. I worry about the team around him and the protection in the lineup, but I'd take my chances on Derrek. He's one of the few Cubs worth owning in 2010. There really isn't much on this roster from a fantasy perspective. Derrek is one of the few Cubs that I actually want on my roster.

Player who will make me punch the screen when he goes in front of me: Yunel Escobar

I think Yunel is a great post-hype sleeper. I think he'll deliver double-digit steals and homers with solid average and run production. Is he an elite shortstop? Probably not, but I want him more than Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal and Alexei Ramirez, all of whom are being drafted ahead of Yunel. On average, he's being taken in 13th or 14th round at MDC Yahoo!-style leagues. That's about where I have him. The fear is that some other owner will snag him in the 12th round while I'm busy grabbing Chad Billingsley.

The downside: He seems to have picked up the Chipper Jones Nagging Injury Disease. Seeing as how he plays next to Chipper, it was only natural. He missed games with elbow, hip, ankle and wrist injuries last year. He was only 27! He never did a turn on the DL last year, but look at that list again. It had to impact his production. My worry with Yunel isn't the big injury. The big injury is easy to handle. My concern is the annoying wrist or ankle injury that saps production. There is nothing worse than watching a guy put up 0-for-4 days while playing through an injury and killing your fantasy team. The most bearish projection on Yunel is 11 homers with a .294 average and 71/63 run production from CHONE.

The bottom line: Yunel is coming off a solid season. His homers have gone from five to 10 to 14 in the past three years. Could he crack 20? It's possible. I'd like to see a little more speed, but I like the rest of the numbers from the shortstop position. Bill James, surprise, surprise, is the most bullish on Escobar. That system has Yunel with a .302 average with 84 runs, 74 RBIs and 12 homers. I'll have to disagree with the power numbers. I don't see why he can't make a run at 20 homers if he can stay healthy. His batted-ball data appears to be trending in the direction of increased power production. He's still a 50% groundball hitter, but he was a 30% flyball hitter for the first time in his career last year. His HR:FB ratio has gone from 7.9% to 9.1% to 10.1% over the previous three seasons. That doesn't mean his ratios will continue to increase, but it's worth mentioning. He could be a breakout cantidate. If I can get him in the 12th or 13th round, I'm fine with having him on my roster for 2010.

Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Miguel Montero

I really like Miguel this year. I think he has a chance to out-produce guys like Matt Weiters and Jorge Posada. Both Matt and Jorge are being drafted 30 to 40 spots ahead of Miguel. Montero started getting regular PT after Chris Snyder went on the DL in late June and he won the starting job. Can you say Wally Pipp? Montero and Snyder are scheduled for a lefty/righty platoon with Montero getting the majority of the at bats. Montero hit .326 with 13 homers in 343 at bats against righties.

The downside: The platoon. The idea of me taking Montero and watching Chris Snyder gets all the playing time has me worried. The most bearish prediction on Montero is CHONE, which has Montero hitting 14 homers with 43 RBIs and 54 runs scored. CHONE also has Chris Snyder getting over 300 plate appearances. It makes sense that it's the most bearish.

The bottom line: I'm a fan of finding a catcher with some pop and leaving him in the catcher slot unless something goofy happens. Names like Napoli, Iannetta and Montero will make there way onto my rosters. As long as they're not hurt, they'll be in my lineup. The projection from the Bill James system is the most bullish. That system has him blasting 18 homers with 63 RBIs and 69 runs. I'm fine with that production from a catcher. He's also one of maybe eight catchers that have a shot at delivering an .800 OPS. Montero showed more than enough in his first extended look at the major league level to be worthy of his ADP. I'm fine with taking him in the 12th or 13th round, but I'm concerned that he won't be there for me. I think that talk of Miguel getting a new contract is going to have him shooting up draft boards.

The following letter from Sporting News president Jeff Price just landed in my inbox:

Dear Valued Fantasy Games Player,

Due to a shift in our core business strategy, SportingNews.com will no longer offer new fantasy games going forward (excluding Strat-O-Matic). The fantasy industry is changing, and we feel it's best to devote our resources to providing the best fantasy content and advice on the internet, and beyond. We believe SportingNews.com's fantasy content, tools and advice are already best in class, and over the next few months, we will completely redesign the Fantasy Source section of our site to deliver a new and improved user experience. With this shift in strategy, we will dedicate our entire fantasy staff to building Fantasy Source into the number one destination for fantasy information, accessible via internet, mobile devices, and other new technologies.

This will be the last post in this series, as by the time this weekend ends, we'll be at that point where more people have held their fantasy drafts than have not. Response has been positive and some interesting conversations have unfolded in the comments to these posts, so I plan to not only do it again in 2011, but to start earlier so I can work my way into even deeper rounds. Thanks to everyone who read these Draft Breakdown posts, and especially those who commented on them.

WHO TO TARGET:

Jay Bruce practically defines the "post-hype sleeper." Bill James is calling for 38 home runs and 95 RBIs from the guy. Wishful thinking? Maybe. Maybe not. He's going as high as the ninth round in some leagues. That's a little early. I'd say start considering him once you hit double digits. And if he drops to the 13th -- like he is in a lot of Yahoo leagues -- jump on him.

Not sure why Brad Hawpe is falling so far. He's had two solid, nearly statistically equal seasons in a row, and every major predictor is expecting him to basically repeat those numbers a third time. Good source of late-round power/RBI.

You’ve looked in the mirror and found that your squad holds less value than a Barbara Streisand CD at an NRA convention. Now what? Rejoice and rebuild; you’re free from the shackles of trying to compete for a title. The BSU rebuild plan can get you into title contention within a year. Auction day will be stars and scrubs to the nth degree, which means that prior to The Big Day, you need to be thinking about only two types of players -- elite talent you can flip during the season, and cheap fliers you may be able to keep around next season.

Elite talent speaks for itself. You want all the Tier One studs you can get your grubby little paws on. At auction that means overpaying. Pre-auction that means don’t even consider dumping Miguel Cabrera because some fantasy rag says he’s overpriced by $5. Who cares? You’ll have more luck turning one overpriced Miguel Cabrera into rebuilding gold than you will parlaying five James Loney types into any keeper value. Your opponent won’t care if Loney was the steal of the auction -- he’ll only care about the mediocrity Loney’s bat brings to the table. So, pre-auction scour the rosters for some moderately overpriced studs you can look to trade later.