This will be the last post in this series, as by the time this weekend ends, we'll be at that point where more people have held their fantasy drafts than have not. Response has been positive and some interesting conversations have unfolded in the comments to these posts, so I plan to not only do it again in 2011, but to start earlier so I can work my way into even deeper rounds. Thanks to everyone who read these Draft Breakdown posts, and especially those who commented on them.

WHO TO TARGET:

Jay Bruce practically defines the "post-hype sleeper." Bill James is calling for 38 home runs and 95 RBIs from the guy. Wishful thinking? Maybe. Maybe not. He's going as high as the ninth round in some leagues. That's a little early. I'd say start considering him once you hit double digits. And if he drops to the 13th -- like he is in a lot of Yahoo leagues -- jump on him.

Not sure why Brad Hawpe is falling so far. He's had two solid, nearly statistically equal seasons in a row, and every major predictor is expecting him to basically repeat those numbers a third time. Good source of late-round power/RBI.

You’ve looked in the mirror and found that your squad holds less value than a Barbara Streisand CD at an NRA convention. Now what? Rejoice and rebuild; you’re free from the shackles of trying to compete for a title. The BSU rebuild plan can get you into title contention within a year. Auction day will be stars and scrubs to the nth degree, which means that prior to The Big Day, you need to be thinking about only two types of players -- elite talent you can flip during the season, and cheap fliers you may be able to keep around next season.

Elite talent speaks for itself. You want all the Tier One studs you can get your grubby little paws on. At auction that means overpaying. Pre-auction that means don’t even consider dumping Miguel Cabrera because some fantasy rag says he’s overpriced by $5. Who cares? You’ll have more luck turning one overpriced Miguel Cabrera into rebuilding gold than you will parlaying five James Loney types into any keeper value. Your opponent won’t care if Loney was the steal of the auction -- he’ll only care about the mediocrity Loney’s bat brings to the table. So, pre-auction scour the rosters for some moderately overpriced studs you can look to trade later.

Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Adam Lind

Adam Lind is the only Blue Jay I want on my roster and gets this spot by default. This Blue Jays team could make a run at 110 losses. Between the pitching staff (pitiful) and division (strong), the Blue Jays are poised to be epically bad. Cito Gaston has already announced his retirement at the end of the year. I'd be impressed if he makes it there. Cito will be begging for retirement after a month with this bunch.

The downside: Did I mention this team is going to blow? Jose Bautista is the projected leadoff hitter. Vernon Wells should hit cleanup and Edwin Encarnacion will be batting fifth. After that, the lineup gets ugly. If Lind can get off to a hot start, he won't see another pitch for the rest of the season. I like Lind, but I don't see where the RBI opportunities are going to come from. I like him for 90 RBIs, but that's me being really, really optimistic.

The bottom line: The Bill James system is the most bullish on Lind. They've got him for 31 homers, 90 runs and 113 RBIs. That's about where I have him for homers and runs, but that RBI total is a little ridiculous. CHONE has him for 24 homers, 69 runs and 90 RBIs. The homers and runs seem awfully low for a guy coming off a 35/93 season who didn't really have any SABR red flags. He's being drafted in the around the fourth or fifth round. I'd like to get him in the late fifth or early sixth, but I don't think he'll be on the board any more. If he were on a better team, I think you'd have to consider him in the third, but he's stuck on this amazingly bad Blue Jays team.

-- Joe Nathan just became exhibit #724 of why you don't hold your draft as soon as your preferred fantasy service goes live. No one's yet sure if the ligament tear in his elbow is going to cost him a few weeks or the season. If I were a gambling man (which I am), I'd bet on the season. Regardless, if he tries to play through the pain this year, he won't be the same pitcher and might have to shut it down at any point. Long story short: Go ahead and pull Nathan from your pre-rankings and put him on your exclude list. As far as who's going to take his place as Minnesota's closer, pretty much every pitcher in their bullpen is having his name thrown around as a possibility. Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier are the two names thrown around the most. Guerrier's stats indicate he's the better pitcher, but Rauch has that MLB closer experience which managers just luuurve. So Rauch's probably the guy to own. Our Who's the Closer? page has been updated.

-- Knock on wood, but it sounds like Jose Reyes is going to be okay. He's got an overactive thyroid, which will need to be treated, but he could be back on the field within the week. If you were ready and willing to draft Jose as a bounce-back candidate this year, I'd say go ahead and follow through with your plan. (You might even be able to get him a round later now.) For those who were more dubious (like me), it's just one more reason to avoid Reyes this season.

-- Yes, I sprawled out on my couch and watched Nats wunderkind Stephen Strasburg pitch two scoreless innings today. I didn't mistake him for Jesus Christ returned to Earth to strike out hapless batters, but the kid looked good. I'm still not drafting him this year. Too much uncertainly over when he'll be up and how many innings they'll let him pitch. If I'm drafting a National League rookie this year, it's going to be Jason Heyward. That dude is rakin'.

Player who will make me punch the screen when he goes in front of me: Evan Longoria

I'm stuck drafting 12th in a league that's been together for a quite a few years and I'm really hoping Longoria falls to me at the 12th spot. My gut tells me that Longoria is going to make it to 11 and then get taken directly in front of me. If that happens, I'll likely miss my first two picks because I'll have tossed my mouse across the room. There is a lot to like with Longoria. Evan has 30+ homer power and my gut tells me that Evan can crack double digit stolen bases. Since Evan started playing professionally in 2006, he has been caught stealing exactly twice. I like Evan better than guys like Ryan Howard and Matt Holliday for one reason -- position scarcity. Third base gets ugly this year. It's the Chipper Jones line this year. If Chipper gets drafted and I don't have a third baseman, I'm in trouble. Adrian Beltre? No thank you. Jhonny Peralta? He can't even spell his own effing name. Things get gross quickly.

PLAYERS TO TARGET:

These will be popular rounds for snaring a sleeper middle infielder. Asdrubal Cabrera might very well be good for 90 runs, 20 SBs and a .300 average. If you're getting so desperate for steals that 20 ain't gonna cut it, Bill James thinks Elvis Andrus is good for 40+ this year. And don't forget that sophomore slugger Gordon Beckham will be moving to second base this season. A line of 90-20-90-10 seems pretty damn good for that position this late in the draft, huh?

Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Vladimir Guerrero

I almost talked myself into having a Julio Borboner for Julio Borbon, but I think his draft position is about right and there are a TON of guys with his skill set this year. The Impaler will never be the force of nature that he was in his days with the Expos or the above average/often-injured guy he turned into with the Angels. The only reason he isn't going earlier is because he doesn't have a position. If you have him on your roster, I recommend drafting more than a few guys with multi-position eligibility. If you have to mix and match due to injury/suckage, you'll be limited with you utility spot taken up by a full time DH. I like Vladdy in 13th to 14th round, assuming I have an open utility spot.

PLAYERS TO TARGET:

Chone Figgins scored 114 runs and swiped 42 bases last year. But the reason you should be excited about possibly getting him this late in the draft is that he plays third base, which is pretty damn thin this year. If you still don't have a third baseman by the sixth or seventh round and miss out on Chone, you might find yourself starting Chase Headley.

You will be so much better off drafting Nelson Cruz in the seventh than you would be taking Bobby Abreu in the sixth. Trust me.

Denard Span is a 26-year-old runs/steals/average guy who Twins fans are hoping can blossom into a superstar this year. Draft him in the seventh or eighth and hope right along with them.