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Sports Odds and Ends
Baseball is in mid-season, but you can still get in on the action when you're betting online. All you need is a laptop and a connection and you can play from anywhere. Best of all, when your team wins, you share in the glory.
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Written by Erich Smith
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Friday, 05 February 2010 19:14 |
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As we get closer to the season, we're starting to see more and more mock drafts come out, and data is starting roll in. So now is as good a time as any to start identifying who your targets will be when your actual draft clock starts counting down.
The later rounds where bargains and true sleepers are found tend to be the most fun and controversial for many; either a guy can make your season or he can spend the year in AAA or at the end of the bench, whether warranted or not. Either way, these picks will rarely break your season's chances, so the majority of interest must lie in the gratification that comes when one or more of the players you select late turns in a monster year.
Here are three guys I feel have as good a chance as any to turn a nice profit for you late in your draft (or should you decide to throw a buck or two their way in your auction):
Brandon Wood
Wood embodies the post-hype sleeper mold this year in my mind. This guy was on everyone's late-round-bargains list this time last year (and for some the year before), but, for some reason, this season he's either going undrafted or being taken in the last rounds of mocks.
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Written by Matt Dewoskin
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Friday, 05 February 2010 11:41 |
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*Please note that I am a rabid White Sox fan and make no apologies for overvaluing my own guys. I am a total effing homer when it comes to the Sox/Carlos Quentin.
Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: John Danks
I really can’t wait to have John Danks on my roster again. I had him last year and enjoyed the hell out of him on more than a few of my teams. I'm slightly worried that his Ks were down and his walks were up last year, but he’s still young enough to reverse that trend. I think this is why all the projections have him with an ERA in the high 3s/low 4s with a higher WHIP than last season. Other than that horrific 2007 season, he’s consistently posted double digit wins with a solid ERA and WHIP. He’s not going to strike out a ton of batters, but he should go over 130 Ks. I think he’s a great value past the 12th round and that’s where I have him targeted. I’ve seen him go as late as the 17th round in some mocks.
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Written by Bob Taylor
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Thursday, 04 February 2010 21:01 |
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More and more major leaguers are joining the ranks of Twitter and tweeting away about everything under the sun -- their workout routines, the quality of the hotel they're staying in, whatever. You can learn a lot about a player from their tweets, way more than you ever could from the back of a baseball card. For example ...
-- Matt Holliday has terrible, terrible taste in music. People who enjoying Creed need to be mocked. I don't care how many runs they drove in last year.
-- Joel Hanrahan likes to tweet while he drives (which may or may not be scarier than the site of him taking the mound in the ninth ... ba-dum-dum) and isn't adverse to throwing some money around at the nearest casino. Hey, Hanrahan, I live in Pittsburgh and have been known to play a little poker. Any time you want to sit for some no-limit hold'em at Rivers Casino, you just give me a yell. Although I can't go higher than $2-$5 blinds unless Dotel wants to stake me.
-- MLB 2K10 coverboy Evan Longoria is a Call of Duty fan. I bet he's a no-good fucking camper. Put down the sniper rifle, Longoria, and grow a set!
-- Nick Swisher tweets almost as often as he draws a walk. Seriously, that dude is on there constantly. When does he find the time to perfect that fauxhawk?
-- C.J. Wilson is another one who tweets regularly. He's got almost 13,000 followers, although my theory is that most of them are chicks who like to swoon over that dreamy background photo. I wish I could rock a soul patch that hard.
-- Mark Teahen knows his new team is a lot better than his old one (as well as how to take a joke). |
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Written by Erich Smith
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Wednesday, 03 February 2010 14:28 |
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If you ask us here at Fantasy Hurler, maybe the one thing we can all agree on is that fantasy baseball is far and away the best of the fake team-building offerings. It can be a grind as the season wears on, and those not equipped to handle the day-to-day upkeep get left behind. The inverse is also true; owners who stay tenacious are the ones most often rewarded come season's end. Besides staying up to date with all the newest transactions, injuries and other miscellaneous happenings, you also need to be constantly evaluating performances as the season progresses. This will allow you to properly buy low and sell high in trades and make better decisions when it comes to waiver-wire transactions. Luckily, baseball has plenty of stats to help guide your way. The trick is determining which stats are best to look at and then seeking them on the Net. Without delving too deep into the craziness, lest we get over our heads Lost-style, here are three stats you should use to evaluate performance as early-season numbers start to roll in ... K/BB Ratio (for pitchers) It's been said before by people much smarter than myself that the only things a pitcher can control when on the mound are strikeouts, walks, and home runs. It just so happens that one of these things is a category we need for our teams (Ks) and another correlates to a second important category we need to win (BB, one half of WHIP). If a guy is striking out many more batters than he is walking, he is doing what's in his power to minimize damage while on the mound. This will lead to lower ERAs when everything else is equal -- most advanced ERA metrics have K/BB as a foundation of their formula -- so we've essentially just helped you solve half of the pitching puzzle in your standard 5x5 league.
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Written by Bob Taylor
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Tuesday, 02 February 2010 13:12 |
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-- Ryan Garko signed with the Mariners. (Can anyone else remember another team being as active as Seattle was this offseason?) He'll likely be platooning with Casey Kotchman, which means both of them essentially become useless. Unless maybe you play in a daily-lineup, AL-only league and want to spend the time rotating them in and out of your lineup. Actually, if you've got the patience, that would probably be a pretty good plan.
-- The Mets apparently never gave J.J. Putz a physical when they traded for him. Working for the Mets must be a lot like working for NBC. (Is it too late to link to this? Nah. Hurry back, Coco.)
-- Apparently, the Twins and Joe Mauer are close to inking what could be up to a 10-year deal. Wow. Signing a catcher for 10 years is like signing an outfielder for 20. Even if the deal ends up somewhere around seven years, Minnesota fans will be desperately hoping he can come close to repeating his '09 numbers, perhaps even more than his fantasy owners are. BTW, I love this ESPN The Magazine picture of Joe Mauer. (It's an alternate cover for their new fan issue.) I'd be smiling too if I saw what was walking up behind the kid.

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Written by Matt Dewoskin
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Tuesday, 02 February 2010 12:18 |
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Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Victor Martinez
For some reason, all the projections for Victor claim that he’ll perform worse than he did last year. CHONE goes so far as to predict that he’ll post a .284/17/84 season. If this happens, you’ll see bandwagon Red Sox fans jump off faster than Dave Roberts dashing for second base. But isn’t Victor one of the few run producers in this lineup? Wouldn’t a guy who will be hitting behind Ellsbury and Pedroia post more than 84 RBIs in a full season? In 56 games with the Red Sox last year, he hit .336 with eight homers and 41 RBIs. In 38 career games at Fenway, Martinez has hit to the tune of a .963 OPS. I think he’s due for more of the same this year.
The downside: Truthfully, he’s the only scary bat in the Red Sox lineup. The days of the Ramirez/Ortiz one-two punch are over. I think we’re going to see opposing teams take the bat out of Victor's hands if the guys hitting behind him struggle at all. “Who are we going to pitch to, the guy with a .900+ OPS or David Ortiz and his .600 OPS? Hmmm ...” If it takes the opposing manager more than .000003 seconds to signal for “four wide,” he should be fired on the spot.
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Written by Matt Dewoskin
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Monday, 01 February 2010 12:38 |
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Editor's note: Below you'll find the first in a series by Matt Dewoskin, yet another new Hurler staff blogger we're proud to introduce to you. Matt's plan is to go through all 30 MLB teams and highlight three players from a fantasy perspective -- one he'd like to draft, another he'll be happy not to, and a third who more people need to be looking at. First up: the Baltimore Orioles. Enjoy. --Bob
Player who will make me punch the screen when he gets drafted in front of me: Matt Wieters
I know that everyone and his aunt is into Matt Wieters, but that doesn’t mean that I don’t want him on my roster. The choices after Wieters goes off the board aren’t pretty. The idea of Kurt Suzuki and Geovany Soto hanging around my roster again makes want to start a Fantasy Curling league. Wieters will likely be the last catcher off the board with any chance at having a big season. There also quite possible that this will be the last year that Wieters can be drafted after the ninth round. Bill James likes him to deliver a 20/75 season with a .311 average. CHONE seems to think that he’s due for a 15/64 season with a .289 average. Marcel is the only one who’s pessimistic on him this year. Marcel’s projection is only 10/46 with a .290, but Marcel is only predicting 392 PAs for Wieters. Barring a severe slump or injury, he’ll go way over that.
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Written by Erich Smith
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Friday, 29 January 2010 00:50 |
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There are plenty of sources to get fantasy information these days. Fantasy “expert” sites are out there en masse, and between RSS feeds, player updates from Rotowire and the like, there’s no shortage of places to go for advice for your fantasy squad. I’d like to discuss the benefits of using Twitter to aid you in you search this season, as I think no place will provide you with faster information than the 140-character communication platform.
1. Twitter news hits instantly.
As we’ve seen with the election in Iran, or more recently with the support for Haiti , Twitter is probably the first place news hits these days. It’s much easier to beat the rest of the pack to the newest bit of information when you only have to write one sentence rather than an entire blog or newspaper post. You will also find nearly every beat writer for each team on Twitter, along with the majority of the fantasy experts mentioned above. This means when a closer loses his job, or some prospect gets the call, it’s going to hit Twitter first. If you are the type that needs to hear this information first to beat other managers to the wire -- and managers who want to win are indeed this type -- Twitter will be somewhere you’ll need to be. There will be no shortage of re-tweets directing you to this info if you follow the correct people.
2. Short and Sweet.
The majority of help discerning who to pick up and who to leave as waiver fodder from fantasy experts usually boils down to weekly or semi-daily postings with a collection of recent top options. These posts come too late for many in competitive leagues and invariably require some sorting. If a player warrants an immediate pick up, you’ll be too late by the time you finish the entire article, and possibly by the time you even begin reading it. On Twitter you’ll get immediate commentary, often along the lines of “down goes such-and-such; pick up blahbiddy-blah now.”
3. Anytime Access
With the amount of apps supporting Twitter, most people can get instant access to the information at any time via cell phone. This isn’t always the case on the web, even if you have all your favorite news sites bookmarked, what with load times and formatting keeping you behind the curve. Also with 14 or 15 games per day, you won’t hear everything even when you’re watching a game. Twitter will always be faster in this regard. If speed is what you’re after (and we all should be after the quickest help), Twitter will be the best option.
4. Best Access
As said above, almost all beat writers are on Twitter, so you can get the info from the clubhouse there. Additionally, all the fantasy writers are on there (including us!), and it gives you access to their immediate thoughts, as well. They are checking the site as frequently as anyone, and you stand a decent chance of getting interaction with them. You can pose a specific question to said beat writer/fantasy expert and usually get some kind of response. It’s yet to be seen how immediate and beneficial this can be, but its one more thing where Twitter can prove to best other traditional media. Try clicking the “e-mail author” link at the bottom of the next article you want more information on and see how quickly, if at all, someone responds.
Overall, Twitter is somewhere fantasy addicts need to be this season. I wouldn’t be left without it for ’10 baseball, and am sure it will provide me with solid information throughout the season to aid me in my title quests. |
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Written by Bob Taylor
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Thursday, 28 January 2010 14:49 |
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So smart of 2K games to do this. The videogame developer is offering one million smackaroos to the first player able to throw a perfect game on MLB 2K10 for either the Xbox 360 or PS3. 2K needs this game to sell well. It's underperformed both critically and commercially for the last few seasons and always falls behind Sony's MLB The Show franchise in players' hearts. (And their NHL 2K series has been cancelled, what with it getting steamrolled by EA's NHL game every year.) This $1 million challenge is a nifty way to get people (a) talking about the baseball game's all-new pitching mechanics and (b) thinking about buying the damn thing to take a shot at the prize. Quite clever, 2K Games. I hope your product is improved this season, as even the lure of big bucks can't make playing a mediocre baseball game over and over again very much fun.
2K10 cover boy Evan Longoria pointed out on Twitter today that whomever wins the contest will make more than he does this year. It's true -- Longoria's only slated for $950,000 this season. Though I bet the winner gets far fewer groupies throwing themselves at him. If you want to go for the perfect game, make sure you give the fine print a lookover. The contest is only valid for 60 days after the game's release (although 2K reps insist they think someone will do it). And it looks like you'll need to be playing on one of the harder difficulty settings.
Meanwhile, I'm still waiting for someone to pay me $1 million for putting together an undefeated season on Baseball Stars for the NES. |
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Written by Erich Smith
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Thursday, 28 January 2010 06:39 |
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Editor's Note: Response to my Help Wanted post has been tremendous, and I'm still going through submissions from wise souls carrying an itch to write about fantasy baseball. One such person was Erich Smith, whose inaugural post for the Hurler you'll find below. Erich knows his stuff and will make an excellent addition to our staff. Feel free to leave a comment and give him a warm welcome. --Bob
We all have our preferences. Whether they’re personal favorites, guys from our home teams, or someone we picked of the scrap heap prior to a breakout, there are certain players we personally identify as targets going into a season. In those cases, it’s understood that you’ll be willing to pay a little more to be able to have their performance on your team. Outside of that though, fantasy players and the industry in general are not immune to groupthink, and certain players can see their value rise simply based on a few kind words from fantasy experts.
Everything in fantasy is tied to value. After the first few rounds (or top auction players) are gone, managers should be drafting players based on what they feel the player will bring to the table and not to just make sure they have the “it” guys for the season. I see much too frequently managers stepping far over the risk/reward line to nab a guy who’s been labeled the “next big thing.” And in these instances they get routinely, as the player fails to deliver proper value for the money or draft slot (even in the 30 or so percent where these players deliver the breakout season projected/wished upon). The following guys are seeing their names on far too many sleeper, top 20, and breakout lists for the upcoming season. By drafting them where they will almost certainly go, you will be passing up on better values and dooming yourself to the bottom of the standings. Do you feel lucky, punk? I’d advise you to try and take as much luck as possible out of your drafts. That probably means skipping these guys entirely:
Joe Mauer -- Having the top catcher can make you feel warm inside. I mean, hey, you just nabbed the top guy at a position where most folks will be starting someone who hits like Omar Vizquel in his good years. (Those were still bad by the way). That was okay and defensible when the top catchers came off the board in the late third to fifth rounds in drafts where talent tends to tail off a bit. This year, however, J-Moww will be going in the second round (and, in some drafts, the first) meaning you will be passing up on huge talent to get him. I’ll put it like this: Is the difference between Mauer and Brian McCann or Victor Martinez that much greater than having Prince Fielder over Kevin Youkilis? I’d say no. Factor in that last year he hit almost as many home runs than the previous three years combined, and you, sir, will be paying for the breakout season, never a recipe for fantasy success.
Mark Reynolds -- He doesn’t have the contact skills to ever hit above .270 without some serious BABIP luck, even though the power is certainly legit. The stolen bases were nice, except that, once you factor in his success rate, there’s a good chance he won’t get to that number (24) again. There’s a reason he’s received the nick-name “Mini Donkey” -- the guy is pretty much the new Adam Dunn. He won’t be the next guy joining the 40/40 club, but it seems like people are betting he’ll at least get close. When you look at the fact that you can get Dunn (or similarly Carlos Pena) some 60 picks later, it’s absolutely ridiculous how high he’s going. “But he plays 3B, which is shallow this year” you say. And I say to you: Grab Troy Tulowitzki who plays at an even shallower position and is more likely to sustain the numbers he showed us last year.
Brett Anderson -- So I’ve given you two guys who “broke out” last year. And a lot of you know you never pay for the breakout year. So allow me to switch gears here. Anderson’s got everything going for him. Nasty stuff, a great repertoire, a good ballpark with decent defense behind him, etc. So how can he make this list? Well, here we get into the hype factor discussed above. I’ve already seen him on probably ten sleeper lists. By the time the major providers open their gates on Fantasy Baseball ’10, this guy will be hyped to the point where it will be very difficult for him to return a solid value. There’s no doubt in my mind he’ll be an ace if he’s not already well on his way there, but there are bound to still be a few bumps left in his road. Depending on a 22-year-old to lead your staff is risky business, and I reckon this Texan will be going in the top 25 pitchers by the time the season rolls around. As I said, it’s entirely possible he’ll deliver for those that take the gamble, and for this reason I guess he’d make a good selection in a keeper or dynasty league. But if you’re looking to get the most value out of your picks and to minimize risk where possible, I’m betting there will be more than a handful of guys more reliable at a similar draft position in March. |
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